Cause and Effect: What the Election Likely Means for AI and Your Wallet

By Johnny Gwin

UPDATED Nov. 5, 2026, 2:35 PM CT: Added two outcomes (#14, AI costs, and #19, data centers moving overseas) and new reporting from the Wall Street Journal on Goldman Sachs' estimate and local data center votes. This isn't about which team you root for. It's cause and effect.

Tuesday's midterms flipped control of Congress. Texas, the center of America's AI building boom, elected a governor who campaigned on pausing new data centers. And the Republican she beat had already paused new data center hookups to the Texas grid back in August. By Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since the 2025 tariff panic, led by AI chip and data center stocks.

So what happens next? Below are my best guesses for the next 12 to 24 months, with odds. They come from the reporting, the tools I use to track markets, and some gut. Treat them like a weather forecast. Usually close. Sometimes wrong.

DATA CENTERS AND AI RULES

1. Another state besides Texas pauses or restricts new data centers: 65%

Texas is already there. The new governor wants a moratorium until the legislature writes real rules, and other states with fast-growing data center pipelines are watching.

2. Those pauses slow a big share of planned US data center growth: 60%

Goldman Sachs warns state and local wins could put about 45% of planned US data center capacity at risk, per the Wall Street Journal. And voters in at least 29 places approved bans or restrictions on data centers Tuesday. Most projects won't die. They'll wait, or move.

3. The pauses last longer than two years: 20%

Most analysts expect them to be temporary. Politicians usually find their way back to "yes" once the jobs and tax money come calling.

4. Projects move to friendlier states: 80%

It's already happening. Two days after the election, Google announced a $17 billion AI data center in Wyoming. Oklahoma, Louisiana, the Dakotas, anywhere with power and permits. The construction crews and the tax money go with them.

5. AI bills pass Congress and get vetoed: 50%

A new Congress will want to write national AI rules. The White House still has the veto pen.

6. A major new federal AI law actually gets signed: 25%

Divided government rarely passes big laws, and the states are moving faster than Washington anyway.

YOUR MONEY

7. AI and tech stocks keep swinging, with more big down days: 75%

Every new pause, delay or hearing is another headline for the market to panic about.

8. AI spending still grows in 2027 anyway: 80%

UBS forecasts about $1.4 trillion in 2027. But read the fine print: much of that growth is memory chips getting more expensive, not more building.

9. The "AI bubble" bursts by December 31: 14%

That's not my number. It's the betting market's, from Polymarket, as of November 5. It moves daily. And it means the people betting real money say 86% it doesn't.

10. A 2027 debt ceiling fight rattles markets: 60%

UBS flags it as the big political risk for 2027. We've seen this movie.

11. Mortgage rates drop much because of any of this: 20%

Rates follow the Fed and the economy. Data centers are a sideshow for homebuyers.

12. Insurers take visible losses on data center loans: 30%

Some life insurers and annuity companies put money into private loans for these projects. Some of those projects will slip.

13. Regular people actually lose their life insurance or annuity over it: under 2%

Insurers are heavily regulated, and state guaranty funds back policies up to set limits.

EVERYDAY LIFE

14. AI gets more expensive for people and businesses: 60%

Democrats have generally favored higher taxes on corporations, and the new majority is already talking about making data centers pay more. Add slower buildout and pricier memory chips, and costs go up. Companies tend to pass costs down, so expect higher prices for AI subscriptions and business tools, or less for the same money.

15. New AI tools in healthcare, banking and utilities roll out slower in states that hit pause: 40%

Your apps won't disappear. Some new stuff just shows up later.

16. Data center jobs and tax money move from state to state: 80%

One town's pause is another town's hiring sign.

THE GLOBAL RACE

17. China keeps out-building us on power and data centers: 70%

Fewer zoning fights. One national priority. That's a real head start.

18. China passes us on the very best AI models by 2028: 25%

Possible. But US chip controls still bite, and we're still ahead today.

19. More US company AI data centers get built overseas instead: 70%

If building here gets slower and harder, the money doesn't wait. The day after the election, Google announced a $15 billion AI data center investment in Malaysia. Cheap power and fast permits are a strong pitch, and there's no rule stopping American companies from building elsewhere.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The AI money isn't going anywhere. It's going to move around, slow down in some places and speed up in others. Expect a bumpy ride, not a crash landing.

HOW TO PREPARE

Know what's in your 401(k). Know who backs your annuity or life insurance. And don't make big money moves because one morning's headlines looked scary.

I'm not a financial advisor, and nothing here is financial advice. Talk to a licensed professional before making decisions with real money.

I talk about AI and tech issues like this every Tuesday night at 8 on FM Talk 106.5 with Scott Tindle on Beyond The Blockchain.